Δευτέρα 27 Ιουνίου 2011

target for this D leg is at 14560

It seems that the triangle pattern is playing out well... We are probably finishing the c wave of a flat D leg of the triangle... Target for this D leg is at 78,6 % retracement of the C leg at 14560... Afterwards, an E leg (which could also be a small one) is expected to finish the triangle before a final thrust to new highs which could also mean the top for EURUSD for the next few years...
Take care...


Τρίτη 21 Ιουνίου 2011

either a triangle... or we r going straight up from here...

to be honest... since we have entered the dog days of the summer, I am expecting more sth like a time consuming correction ( a triangle maybe..?), rather than a 3rd implulsive wave up...


So far the action from the bottom of 14073 is an expaned LD which is close to its end... So, expectations are for a 2nd/b wave down to 14200 - 14220 level before another wave up...




Πέμπτη 16 Ιουνίου 2011

It's decision time

EURUSD fell from 14695 in two equal waves... so a correction should turn over from this level...
If not and price falls through the origin of the 1st wave, then an expanded flat as a wave 2 comes in again and more weakness towards 13800 level is to be expected... but so far nothing seems to invalidate the bullish count...
take care


Παρασκευή 10 Ιουνίου 2011

A 2nd wave down before a 3rd wave up again...

Don't get sucked in by this bearish price action 'cos it won't take much time till EURUSD reaches 15000 again while the crowd will continuously keep on selling the rally to come... This is a very confusing and trapping price action but it should not  last  for long... It's probably a second wave and this is how 2nd waves typically behave... they trap the crowd to the pre-existing trend, which for the last few months was bearish... So, after it reaches some fibo targets it should head higher again (of course it could turn out to be a more complex 2nd wave but this is sth time will show...)
Only a break below 13965 would make me change my bias but until then we should be buying this dip...


Τρίτη 7 Ιουνίου 2011

that was probably an a-b-c down

so now we should be going higher... What drives me to that conclusion is that if an expaned flat was forming (as a b wave) then the c was already > 200% of a... this is not correct and invalidates (imho) the bearish count...
Another thing we should notice is that the previous two times (since summer of 2010) the same pattern took place (an a-b-c with the c being kind of small, usually less than 61,8% of a)... That is constitent with a bear trap, and you should be very flexible if you are a bear at that moment, 'cos if the same pattern happens again then higher prices is what should be expected...



Παρασκευή 3 Ιουνίου 2011

Target has been reached and now we r going down...

I wrote the previous time: "...price should head higher towards 14350 - 14450 area and afterwards we should see another decline...". Actually, price seems to have topped a little above my target at 14515 and wave counting now looks complete... Therefore we should be expecting another decline towards the targets mentioned in the chart... Even though I consider it unlikely we should be careful 'cos any pop up above 14550 - 14600 would mean that a major low has been put at 13955 and we could speed up to 14940, exceed that level and then to 15200 and then 15400 area quite easily... But for now chart points mainly downwards...



update: Bearish senario is invalidated, so we should be expecting a move up towards 14940 at first and then 15200 and possibly 15400...