Πέμπτη 31 Μαρτίου 2011

we are not done yet...

Wave count is still pointing higher till we reach the fibo cluster zone of 14400... For now, we are in wave 3 of 5 of  5 of C...
When we get to 14400 we should expect a rather surprising for most, sharp reversal... we will probably drop 600 - 700 pips kind of fast...But, let's wait to see what happens...


Παρασκευή 25 Μαρτίου 2011

this upside move...

will end somehow soon in EURUSD, so I thought i would take another look at the bigger picture again... As you already know Europe is facing a lot of problems with countries bailing out by not being sustainable (too much Keynesianism i guess)... That will result in some more pressure on the EURUSD but when all these mess finishes up and the geopolitical structure of EU changes in favor of Germany,  EURUSD is expected to start a new multiyear bull market... but until then this will be the picture i am looking at...


 ps. btw, that's an alternative which came back in my mind after visiting the aspen trading site

Πέμπτη 17 Μαρτίου 2011

If it continues going higher...

then 14400 will be the next area of interest...
(Yes, i got stopped by this bullish price action at 14040...)
that will probably mean that the decline from 14280 was an X wave and now the A=C level will probably be the next mid term bull target... but all these will take place IF the EURUSD continues climbing, 'cos based on sentiment measures we are very near USD's bottom so acceleration to the downside for the eurodollar could happen any time...



ps: at 14400 level Y = 61,8% of W as well... too many fibonacci levels meet at that area... and price is still climbing....

Τετάρτη 16 Μαρτίου 2011

Is the correction over?

It seems so, after retracing almost full of 1st wave forming a zig zag A-B-C where C = 0,618 of A... If it is so, and don't see a break of 14035 then we should see lower prices at least to 13450 at the beginning and 12870 later on... we shall see...



Παρασκευή 11 Μαρτίου 2011

Another correction?

It seems so, since the bigger picture in EURUSD is bearish and declines seem very well impulsive so far... we finished 5 waves down (I just relabed the waves and I think they fit perfect now...) and we are now in the middle of what seems to be the A of  2... I am expecting another decline before final push up in a C of the 2nd wave to finish the correction and continue with the downwards movement... I just want to point out that the correction could retrace even all of the 1st  wave and still be valid... I am keeping my short positions with a stop loss above 14040...


Τετάρτη 9 Μαρτίου 2011

Correction should be over at 1,4034

Therefore what we are experiencing right now is the beginning of an impulsive decline down in a 3rd wave in multiple degrees... Price has already made 5 waves down in a 15 min TF and is now in the process of a small 2nd wave... When that finishes we should see an even more powerful decline... That decline will confuse many traders who will keep on buying considering this is a buy the dip opportunity... But obviously they will fail... their stops will be getting triggered until they realise that we are heading much lower and start selling... I think, (if this counting is correct) that this is the highest level we will see for EURUSD at least for the next 1-2 years...





Παρασκευή 4 Μαρτίου 2011

Is it over..? Is 2nd wave over..?

If not, then we may have a little more upside til it touches 14040 level before EURUSD crashes again...
That is if this counting is correct and we are about to enter a 3rd wave in multiple degrees decline... If so, then maybe we get a little spike up by the end of NY session today or monday to the aforementioned level before EURUSD falls out of bed again...
If it continues to climb then we should consider the possibility of breaking 14280 resistance to make new highs and complete the correction which started in June 2010... but I am fairly certain that this senario won't happen and price will fall from here in a 3rd wave pattern in multiple degrees... Sentiment is already too extreme against the US dollar...