Is a flat unfolding?

In the case of a "risk off" event during the weekend this flat correction could play nicely... or else, correction is finished and we r going way higher next week... of course there is always the chance of an expanded flat unfolding, but imho any breaking above 13915 should be respected and long moves should be initiated...

fibo cluster zone at 14000

this could prove a major low as at this price we see:
1. c= 1,618 of a as a 2nd wave zig-zag correction
2. 88.6% correction of the impulse numbered 1-5
3. formation of a bat pattern (for those involved in harmonics as well)

Strong buy interst should be seen if we get to this level and if it holds then we could be in for a very bullish eurusd next month

Is this a bottom?

many senarios are probable but the best I can think for now is that we have hit a major bottom, and we probably gonna see a decline to below 13500 to finish the correction before going higher again...

triangle is done...

and leading diagonal is also done... and now we r either finishing the correction or based on the short time the correction has already lasted, we should be expecting another leg up as a b and then another c leg to finish the 2nd wave... levels to watch are the 61,8% and 78.6% retracement levels... Afterwards, a strong upwards movement should take us above 14950 to new highs...
take care...

fibo cluster zone at 14650 - 14670

So, it seems the correction was over at 14255 and now we have entered a third wave which will eventually take us above May's high to probably new highs at 15200 and 15400... First obstacle the market has to break through is 14650 - 14670 fibo area where a very interesting fight will take place... Afterwards, we expect eurusd to head to 14950 area and then to new highs...
Take care and trade safe...

upside target is achieved...

... we should be heading downwards now...
It seems that the B wave correction is in its final stages (probably a few more pips up before it finishes...) Should that be the senario, we should be careful for the last leg of the correction which will take us downwards to probably below 14000 area, before the whole correction finishes...
take care and trade at your own risk...

a little more down, then up, then down again...

... to complete the correction... then probably a new wave up will begin, breaking 14950 highs and targetting 15200 area at first... this is my outlook for eurusd for now... target for the 2nd wave at 13985 area...

doesn't that look like a flat?

well, it does look at me.. and it's probably part of the larger correction that started in May... therefore if I am right any drop in the blue area near 13970 area is a strong buy signal for a move up above the highs of 14535... So, so far, since May we had a complex zig - zag and we are now in the middle of what appears to be a flat correction... therefore IF this senario is right we should be expecting at least one more corrective pattern to unfold before the final thrust to new highs... If I am proved wrong, I will have to reassess...

Take care

mid term long target is not yet achieved

Many short term counting can be completely valid at this point, so I stick with my mid term target of 15200 - 15400 by the end of year... I remain long against the 13820 pivot area, waiting for a break above the highs of 14950 to hit my target... so far that last b wave seems like a complex correction and I am not quite sure it has finished...

trade safe

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not much to say...

as EURUSD continues the slopping corrective movement while going absolutely nowhere... no clear pattern can be defined, so I am staying with my medium term outlook that this price action since early May is corrective and when it finishes we should see new highs...

already on target but

it could go a little bit lower...  Eurusd reached C = A for E leg but if it pukes lower then next area of interest would be at 78,6% at 14180 and also triangle line support where also C = 1,618 of A...
trade safe

D leg is finished and E leg has already begun

We were right so far as EURUSD printed a high at 14577 near our 14560 target...  It seems that for the next few weeks price will be ranging in an attempt to form the final E leg which should finish the triangle before the final thrust above May's high... target for this E leg is anywhere between 14125 - 14385 area...
but for the near term in the next sessions we should see a corrective upwards movement to finish the 2nd or B wave as 5 waves down look complete or near completion...

target for this D leg is at 14560

It seems that the triangle pattern is playing out well... We are probably finishing the c wave of a flat D leg of the triangle... Target for this D leg is at 78,6 % retracement of the C leg at 14560... Afterwards, an E leg (which could also be a small one) is expected to finish the triangle before a final thrust to new highs which could also mean the top for EURUSD for the next few years...
Take care...

either a triangle... or we r going straight up from here...

to be honest... since we have entered the dog days of the summer, I am expecting more sth like a time consuming correction ( a triangle maybe..?), rather than a 3rd implulsive wave up...

So far the action from the bottom of 14073 is an expaned LD which is close to its end... So, expectations are for a 2nd/b wave down to 14200 - 14220 level before another wave up...

It's decision time

EURUSD fell from 14695 in two equal waves... so a correction should turn over from this level...
If not and price falls through the origin of the 1st wave, then an expanded flat as a wave 2 comes in again and more weakness towards 13800 level is to be expected... but so far nothing seems to invalidate the bullish count...
take care

A 2nd wave down before a 3rd wave up again...

Don't get sucked in by this bearish price action 'cos it won't take much time till EURUSD reaches 15000 again while the crowd will continuously keep on selling the rally to come... This is a very confusing and trapping price action but it should not  last  for long... It's probably a second wave and this is how 2nd waves typically behave... they trap the crowd to the pre-existing trend, which for the last few months was bearish... So, after it reaches some fibo targets it should head higher again (of course it could turn out to be a more complex 2nd wave but this is sth time will show...)
Only a break below 13965 would make me change my bias but until then we should be buying this dip...

that was probably an a-b-c down

so now we should be going higher... What drives me to that conclusion is that if an expaned flat was forming (as a b wave) then the c was already > 200% of a... this is not correct and invalidates (imho) the bearish count...
Another thing we should notice is that the previous two times (since summer of 2010) the same pattern took place (an a-b-c with the c being kind of small, usually less than 61,8% of a)... That is constitent with a bear trap, and you should be very flexible if you are a bear at that moment, 'cos if the same pattern happens again then higher prices is what should be expected...

Target has been reached and now we r going down...

I wrote the previous time: "...price should head higher towards 14350 - 14450 area and afterwards we should see another decline...". Actually, price seems to have topped a little above my target at 14515 and wave counting now looks complete... Therefore we should be expecting another decline towards the targets mentioned in the chart... Even though I consider it unlikely we should be careful 'cos any pop up above 14550 - 14600 would mean that a major low has been put at 13955 and we could speed up to 14940, exceed that level and then to 15200 and then 15400 area quite easily... But for now chart points mainly downwards...

update: Bearish senario is invalidated, so we should be expecting a move up towards 14940 at first and then 15200 and possibly 15400...

and higher it should go...

All this choppy price action of the last week must have been a 2nd or B wave while forming a flat correction... B waves are generally time consuming corrections where 2nd waves aren't so this should be a B wave with a C down leg to follow there after... That a-b-c expanded flat of the B wave turned out to be a complex one and especially that last c leg doesn't have the typical impulsive look... Nevertheless price should head higher towards 14350 - 14450 area and afterwards we should see another decline...

After bouncing from support EURUSD heads higher

It seems that 5 waves down are finished with the 5th wave being some kind of ending diagonal... since then price constructed a round bottom and is now heading higher towards the two targets mentioned in the picture... There is a small possibility of price revisiting the 14050 lows in an attempt of forming a flat correction, but nomatter what we should probably see first 14500 printing before any attempt of breaking 14000...

Andrew's pitchfork points downwards to support area

Since price action is inconclussive as if these are the first steps of a bigger downwards movement and until I see some decent evidence that the bigger decline has resumed I think that I should  draw some pitchfork lines to determine possible energy points as well as lines which would turn out to be targets for this down leg... If you are not familiar with medial line technique you should check these two Tim Morge's sites http://www.medianline.com/   and  http://www.marketgeometry.com/...
You will see in the chart that the pair after hitting median green line is now heading to the lower green line which should act as support... If this support breaks the EURUSD will head to median red line...
I am not quite confident that this is the first steps of the big decline as I assume (based on cycles analysis) that for the rest of the year pice action will consolidate in a big range and probably head a little higher... 2012 should print the high for the next 4 years to come which is not necessary higher that those already printed...

this should be the top...

I wrote on 4th of May: "It seems we ended up with the yellow 3rd wave within the 5th... The 4th wave within the 5th should find support at 14745 or else at 14700 before exploding higher again to end with the 5th of the 5th wave..."... It seems that the 4th wave was shorter than i expected and the 5th of the 5th wave ended with a small thrust above the congestion zone before EURUSD falling out of a cliff  for nearly 480 pips... it has now finished 5 clear waves down and expectations now are for a second wave to form above the 50% retracement level, possibly at the 61,8% at 14750... Shorting at this area against the highs should be well rewarding...

within a wave 4 correction

It seems we ended up with the yellow 3rd wave within the 5th, which by the way was shorter than the 1st which means that the 5th wave will also be shorter than the third which places it at maximum 410 pips...
The 4th wave within the 5th should find support at 14745 or else at 14700 before exploding higher again to end with the 5th of the 5th wave...

a look at the bigger picture again

at this stage with the leading diagonal senario (pointed out by many elliotticians) completely invalidated, I thought that i should give you my latest point of view for the larger picture

1. A Flat correction

This senario considers px from summer 2008 to summer 2010 a strong ABC zig - zag correction which often indicates that a flat or a triangle is on the way... We are now finishing a coplex WXY correction for the B leg of the flat and we should afterwards see a strong 5 wave decline towards parity for the C leg...

 2. W - X - Y correction

This senario puts us in a more complex situation where we are now finishing the connective X wave of a W-X-Y correction... In this corrective mode W wave was a zig-zag , X is a complex correction and we should then see the Y wave which could be either a flat or a zig-zag or a triangle... this pattern could see us topping near 15200

in a second wave correction pointing higher...

Price could have already completed a 2nd wave correction or we could see a more complex one leading us to 38,2% (14457) or more likely 50% (14400) retracement level...

price is still within the channel

and even though it shows some signs of divergence with elliott wave oscillator, it actually doesn't seem to have topped yet... while it continues to trade within the ascending channel, next target should be 15000 - a round number and also the 161,8% extension...
We should see some clear signs of topping before we attempt any short positions... until then long positions are favoured...

top is probably in...

Well, it seems that everybody is extremely bearish USD again... that's a sign...
They also seem to have forgotten those solvency problems in EU... that's also very wrong...
If current counting is correct then market put a failed 5th in the top of this 5 wave sequence, and then dropped really hard... that means that probably this was the end of the correction and we should be looking south for the EURUSD the next months...
Also, i already said that breaking the lower boundary of the channel should be the first clue that the upside move is over... I am now anticipating a retest of the broken line and continuation of the downwards move...

not topped yet... but topping

one more leg is missing to call this the top... just wait before you attempt any shorts... this is my micro count...

breaking lower boundary...

of ascending channel should be the first sign that EURUSD has reversed (at least in the short term)... We seem to have a little more upside to come while price action looks very choppy and possibly toppish... I would attempt a short position after the break of support line but breaking below 14020 pivot would make me feel more comfortable...

we are not done yet...

Wave count is still pointing higher till we reach the fibo cluster zone of 14400... For now, we are in wave 3 of 5 of  5 of C...
When we get to 14400 we should expect a rather surprising for most, sharp reversal... we will probably drop 600 - 700 pips kind of fast...But, let's wait to see what happens...

this upside move...

will end somehow soon in EURUSD, so I thought i would take another look at the bigger picture again... As you already know Europe is facing a lot of problems with countries bailing out by not being sustainable (too much Keynesianism i guess)... That will result in some more pressure on the EURUSD but when all these mess finishes up and the geopolitical structure of EU changes in favor of Germany,  EURUSD is expected to start a new multiyear bull market... but until then this will be the picture i am looking at...

 ps. btw, that's an alternative which came back in my mind after visiting the aspen trading site

If it continues going higher...

then 14400 will be the next area of interest...
(Yes, i got stopped by this bullish price action at 14040...)
that will probably mean that the decline from 14280 was an X wave and now the A=C level will probably be the next mid term bull target... but all these will take place IF the EURUSD continues climbing, 'cos based on sentiment measures we are very near USD's bottom so acceleration to the downside for the eurodollar could happen any time...

ps: at 14400 level Y = 61,8% of W as well... too many fibonacci levels meet at that area... and price is still climbing....

Is the correction over?

It seems so, after retracing almost full of 1st wave forming a zig zag A-B-C where C = 0,618 of A... If it is so, and don't see a break of 14035 then we should see lower prices at least to 13450 at the beginning and 12870 later on... we shall see...

Another correction?

It seems so, since the bigger picture in EURUSD is bearish and declines seem very well impulsive so far... we finished 5 waves down (I just relabed the waves and I think they fit perfect now...) and we are now in the middle of what seems to be the A of  2... I am expecting another decline before final push up in a C of the 2nd wave to finish the correction and continue with the downwards movement... I just want to point out that the correction could retrace even all of the 1st  wave and still be valid... I am keeping my short positions with a stop loss above 14040...

Correction should be over at 1,4034

Therefore what we are experiencing right now is the beginning of an impulsive decline down in a 3rd wave in multiple degrees... Price has already made 5 waves down in a 15 min TF and is now in the process of a small 2nd wave... When that finishes we should see an even more powerful decline... That decline will confuse many traders who will keep on buying considering this is a buy the dip opportunity... But obviously they will fail... their stops will be getting triggered until they realise that we are heading much lower and start selling... I think, (if this counting is correct) that this is the highest level we will see for EURUSD at least for the next 1-2 years...

Is it over..? Is 2nd wave over..?

If not, then we may have a little more upside til it touches 14040 level before EURUSD crashes again...
That is if this counting is correct and we are about to enter a 3rd wave in multiple degrees decline... If so, then maybe we get a little spike up by the end of NY session today or monday to the aforementioned level before EURUSD falls out of bed again...
If it continues to climb then we should consider the possibility of breaking 14280 resistance to make new highs and complete the correction which started in June 2010... but I am fairly certain that this senario won't happen and price will fall from here in a 3rd wave pattern in multiple degrees... Sentiment is already too extreme against the US dollar...

Flat as a B wave for EURUSD..?

Recent price action doesn't stand for a high probability leading diagonal, so we should expect 13860 be taken out en route for 14030... But will that happen soon?.. maybe, maybe not... if by next week 13860 gets taken out then we shall head to 14030 where EURUSD will probably top and also form the high for month March... If not, then price could head lower in a 5 wave decline to form the c leg of a flat B wave where it shall slightly drop below 13420 before it heads north again...

The bullish count is my favourite for now...

Unless price reverses from current levels (which would mean that we have finished 1st and 2nd leg of a leading diagonal), i will consider 14000 as my next target area... this is where (as i wrote in previous post)  C leg would be equal to 61,8% of A leg...
Another more bullish senario would drive the currency pair above 14280, but this is sth I will examine if and when things point that way... For now to keep the bigger bearish picture alive we should either form a leading diagonal, or a 5 impulse wave to 14000... (the expaned flat senario as a 2nd wave from 13500 low is not in my list yet, even though it is likely)...

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it could turn into an expanding leading diagonal...

... but chances are increasing that we could visit 1,3970 - 1,4030 area probably within the next week...

If not a 1-2, i-ii, then maybe a leading diagonal?..

Recent price action is not very suggestive of a third wave decline in so many degrees... Unless price falls off a cliff by the end of Friday NY session, I will have to reassess and consider the possibility of a leading diagonal formation...
In that case we should still see the 5 wave decline down to 1.3370 - 1,3300 where the ext projection of the 4th wave lies around... then price should recover in a second wave fashion degree before a much bigger decline starts...
Of course there is also the case of an ABC correction and price heading higher than 1,3860 but this senario is not in my list of favourites yet...
So for now i am anticipating a decline down to 1,33.. something area and I'll be watching price action before i make any new steps...

ps. this formation in harmonics could also be labeled 3 drives pattern etc

inside the third wave...

Many counts should be valid by now for EURUSD since the third wave is contributed by shallow retracements and that many times confuses elliotticians who try to count subwaves... Nevertheless we are expecting acceleration of the decline sooner rather than later which should be breathtaking...
One count i wanted to show you is this which shows that we already finished a second wave retracement at 38,2% and we are in the process of building a leading diagonal...

and the slide continues...

EURUSD is ready to accelerate decline...

After the currency pair failed at 61,8 % retaracement, it continued its decline... it seems that 5 waves down have already formed and now a small retracement will take place... probably when this finishes the decline will accelerate (especially after it breaks 1.3585 support) towards midterm target of 1,3225 area where w.3 = 1,618 of w.1 or even towards 1,3150 where the head and shoulders (better visible in H1 chart) target lies...

3rd wave in multiple degrees on the way..?

It seems that we had an expanded irregular flat as a 2nd wave in that drop from 1.3862 for EURUSD which should now be over... the pop above 1.3627 is 61,8% the drop below 1.3540, so it qualifies expectations for an expaned flat... lower prices should follow in that currency pair which should lead us very powerfully way down... at least below Jan lows within the next weeks...
Take care...