a look at the bigger picture again

at this stage with the leading diagonal senario (pointed out by many elliotticians) completely invalidated, I thought that i should give you my latest point of view for the larger picture

1. A Flat correction

This senario considers px from summer 2008 to summer 2010 a strong ABC zig - zag correction which often indicates that a flat or a triangle is on the way... We are now finishing a coplex WXY correction for the B leg of the flat and we should afterwards see a strong 5 wave decline towards parity for the C leg...

 2. W - X - Y correction

This senario puts us in a more complex situation where we are now finishing the connective X wave of a W-X-Y correction... In this corrective mode W wave was a zig-zag , X is a complex correction and we should then see the Y wave which could be either a flat or a zig-zag or a triangle... this pattern could see us topping near 15200

in a second wave correction pointing higher...

Price could have already completed a 2nd wave correction or we could see a more complex one leading us to 38,2% (14457) or more likely 50% (14400) retracement level...

price is still within the channel

and even though it shows some signs of divergence with elliott wave oscillator, it actually doesn't seem to have topped yet... while it continues to trade within the ascending channel, next target should be 15000 - a round number and also the 161,8% extension...
We should see some clear signs of topping before we attempt any short positions... until then long positions are favoured...

top is probably in...

Well, it seems that everybody is extremely bearish USD again... that's a sign...
They also seem to have forgotten those solvency problems in EU... that's also very wrong...
If current counting is correct then market put a failed 5th in the top of this 5 wave sequence, and then dropped really hard... that means that probably this was the end of the correction and we should be looking south for the EURUSD the next months...
Also, i already said that breaking the lower boundary of the channel should be the first clue that the upside move is over... I am now anticipating a retest of the broken line and continuation of the downwards move...

not topped yet... but topping

one more leg is missing to call this the top... just wait before you attempt any shorts... this is my micro count...

breaking lower boundary...

of ascending channel should be the first sign that EURUSD has reversed (at least in the short term)... We seem to have a little more upside to come while price action looks very choppy and possibly toppish... I would attempt a short position after the break of support line but breaking below 14020 pivot would make me feel more comfortable...