5 of C of B (or C of 2) is nearly over...

It seems that the retracement lasted a little longer and now it's heading to 1,3730 - 40 level... The thing with this level is that it's both the C = 1,618 x A level of the expanded flat pattern (let's call it senario A) and also the 61,8% level of retracement of the drop from 1,4280 high which means that another senario could also be completely valid (senario B or Alt senario)... that is that the first 5 wave movement down from 1,4280 high has finished to 1,2870 and now a very sharp ABC correction with C being an ending diagonal is being formed... no matter what, this price action is confusing, and we should wait for a couple of months or maybe more to clarify the picture as if the drop from 1,4280 high is impulsive (5 waves already finished) or the second leg of retracement from 1,5150 high(see also here)...

5 of C of B could soon be over...

Ok, so far it seems that we are tracking the right path and we are following what seems to be an expanded flat as a B wave... right now the c leg of the irregular pattern seems to have entered its final stages, so any open long positions should be ready to be abandoned... 'cos C wave is coming and it's gonna be violent..! It's gonna take us below August low of 1,2580 down near the June low of 1,1870... the targets should be well defined in the upcoming sessions... (remember to use semilog charts for that purpose as well...)

The recent rally alters the big picture...

Recent rally is clearly impulsive and doesn't show any signs of topping so far... so, I expect the euro to rise further against dollar in the coming sessions and possibly extend beyond 14 Dec high of 1,3500... that would complete the C leg of an expanded flat "B" wave... that means that the move down from 1,4280 is not yet impulsive (price is still correcting) rather than the second leg of a bigger correction... this is quite normal because extended 5th waves tend to be double retraced, we saw just the first leg of the corrective pattern from May low and now we are in the middle of the second corrective wave...

So, to summarize, i expect first a move up to complete B wave ending somewhere near 1,3580 area, then an impulsive decline down to near 1,20 level, and when sentiment against Euro is starting to get extreme again, a large impulsive wave up to 1,4500 area should begin... that would probably end the correction since 1,5150 high...
Of course, that's just a thought so far, and price action is needed to confirm or reject that senario...

A bounce would be a great short opportunity

So it seems that the first leg of the 5th wave was completed, and now a bounce to at least 50% retracement is expected... Considering, though,  the very bearish eurusd outlook even the 38,2 % level satisfies min expectations for a 2nd wave, so this is the level I'll be watching closely for a short position down to at least 1.2585...

Triangle isn't valid anymore...

Yesterday's price action invalidated the triangle senario... So, from what it seems we had a flat correction as a 4th wave with the c being a failed one reaching only 61,8% of wave a.. this is extremaly bearish (but totally valid), as it points that the currency lacks of upwards momentum and is being sold on every single correction... I am still waiting for 1,2585 to be reached but that will happen probably next week after a small correction... I am saying that because there is a possibility that the 1st leg of the 5th wave is ending...So, i am anticipating a small retracement starting from Monday session

Triangle senario update

It seems that D leg was an expanded flat which ended or ending near 1.3125 and near trendline resistance.. we should now see leg E start developing... E leg usually overshoots the trendline which connects A and C, but sometimes it finishes near 38,2 % retracement...

upd. I just made some minor changes in the picture which on the other hand don't affect the triangle senario...

Update on triangle... C finished... Is b of D finished as well?

So, it seems we are moving towards the D wave in the triangle senario... it seems that "a" leg is finished and we are near the end of "b" leg probably after a small final thrust towards 1,3400 area... then we should see some strong movement of "c" leg towards probably 1.3230 or 1,3130 (100% and 161,8% projection of "a" leg)... there is where D wave could finish... we shall see...