Recent price action doesn't stand for a high probability leading diagonal, so we should expect 13860 be taken out en route for 14030... But will that happen soon?.. maybe, maybe not... if by next week 13860 gets taken out then we shall head to 14030 where EURUSD will probably top and also form the high for month March... If not, then price could head lower in a 5 wave decline to form the c leg of a flat B wave where it shall slightly drop below 13420 before it heads north again...
Παρασκευή 25 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
Πέμπτη 24 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
The bullish count is my favourite for now...
Unless price reverses from current levels (which would mean that we have finished 1st and 2nd leg of a leading diagonal), i will consider 14000 as my next target area... this is where (as i wrote in previous post) C leg would be equal to 61,8% of A leg...
Another more bullish senario would drive the currency pair above 14280, but this is sth I will examine if and when things point that way... For now to keep the bigger bearish picture alive we should either form a leading diagonal, or a 5 impulse wave to 14000... (the expaned flat senario as a 2nd wave from 13500 low is not in my list yet, even though it is likely)...
Another more bullish senario would drive the currency pair above 14280, but this is sth I will examine if and when things point that way... For now to keep the bigger bearish picture alive we should either form a leading diagonal, or a 5 impulse wave to 14000... (the expaned flat senario as a 2nd wave from 13500 low is not in my list yet, even though it is likely)...
Κυριακή 20 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
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Παρασκευή 18 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
If not a 1-2, i-ii, then maybe a leading diagonal?..
Recent price action is not very suggestive of a third wave decline in so many degrees... Unless price falls off a cliff by the end of Friday NY session, I will have to reassess and consider the possibility of a leading diagonal formation...
In that case we should still see the 5 wave decline down to 1.3370 - 1,3300 where the ext projection of the 4th wave lies around... then price should recover in a second wave fashion degree before a much bigger decline starts...
Of course there is also the case of an ABC correction and price heading higher than 1,3860 but this senario is not in my list of favourites yet...
So for now i am anticipating a decline down to 1,33.. something area and I'll be watching price action before i make any new steps...
ps. this formation in harmonics could also be labeled 3 drives pattern etc
In that case we should still see the 5 wave decline down to 1.3370 - 1,3300 where the ext projection of the 4th wave lies around... then price should recover in a second wave fashion degree before a much bigger decline starts...
Of course there is also the case of an ABC correction and price heading higher than 1,3860 but this senario is not in my list of favourites yet...
So for now i am anticipating a decline down to 1,33.. something area and I'll be watching price action before i make any new steps...
ps. this formation in harmonics could also be labeled 3 drives pattern etc
Τρίτη 15 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
inside the third wave...
Many counts should be valid by now for EURUSD since the third wave is contributed by shallow retracements and that many times confuses elliotticians who try to count subwaves... Nevertheless we are expecting acceleration of the decline sooner rather than later which should be breathtaking...
One count i wanted to show you is this which shows that we already finished a second wave retracement at 38,2% and we are in the process of building a leading diagonal...
One count i wanted to show you is this which shows that we already finished a second wave retracement at 38,2% and we are in the process of building a leading diagonal...
Σάββατο 12 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
Πέμπτη 10 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
EURUSD is ready to accelerate decline...
After the currency pair failed at 61,8 % retaracement, it continued its decline... it seems that 5 waves down have already formed and now a small retracement will take place... probably when this finishes the decline will accelerate (especially after it breaks 1.3585 support) towards midterm target of 1,3225 area where w.3 = 1,618 of w.1 or even towards 1,3150 where the head and shoulders (better visible in H1 chart) target lies...
Τρίτη 8 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
3rd wave in multiple degrees on the way..?
It seems that we had an expanded irregular flat as a 2nd wave in that drop from 1.3862 for EURUSD which should now be over... the pop above 1.3627 is 61,8% the drop below 1.3540, so it qualifies expectations for an expaned flat... lower prices should follow in that currency pair which should lead us very powerfully way down... at least below Jan lows within the next weeks...
Take care...
Take care...
Πέμπτη 3 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
the bigger picture again...
Recent price action requires a little more time to clarify if we have finished with the retracement and we track the right path or we are in the completely opposite direction... So, I would like to check again how the slightly bigger pictures looks at this point... I have two charts for you guys, with some comments on them...
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